2026 Budget: what the NDIS numbers actually mean

This page will be updated with the actual budget figures on budget night. The context below explains what to look for and why it matters.

Why the budget matters for NDIS

The April 2026 reforms were a policy announcement. The budget is where the money is committed. Two things need to happen for the reforms to actually work:

The Commonwealth needs to allocate funding to the foundational support tier
States need to match that funding under bilateral agreements

Without both, the foundational tier won’t have the capacity to absorb the 160,000 participants the government is planning to transition off the NDIS.

What to look for on budget night

Total NDIS appropriation — is the forward estimates curve bending? The scheme was tracking toward $50+ billion per year by 2030. The budget will show whether the reforms are projected to bring that trajectory down.

Foundational supports Commonwealth allocation — new money for the tier below NDIS. This figure signals how serious the government is about making the foundational tier work.

Thriving Kids early intervention funding — the transition of children under 9 from NDIS ECEI pathways needs dedicated funding. SA already has an operational Thriving Kids pilot (launched September 2025) — the budget should show Commonwealth funding to scale this nationally. Look for a line item here.

NDIA and assessment tool development — the functional capacity assessment tool (expected 2028) requires design and rollout funding.

What it means if the foundational tier is underfunded

If the Commonwealth allocation for foundational supports is low, two things follow:

States are less likely to match with their own funding
The foundational tier won’t have the capacity to properly support participants transitioning off NDIS
Those participants may face a support gap

This is the single most important thing to watch in the NDIS-related budget numbers.

What it means for participants right now

Nothing changes immediately on budget night. Your plan continues. Reassessments under the new framework don’t begin until 2028 at the earliest.

What the budget reveals is the pace and scale of transition, and how well-resourced the safety net will be for people who are moved off the NDIS.

This page will be updated with actual figures when the budget is released. Sign up for updates on the home page and we’ll send you a plain-language summary.