Open math
How we calculate the result
Both checks are simple weighted-scoring models. Each answer adds — or in some cases subtracts — from a single number. That number lands you in one of three bands.
We've kept it transparent on purpose. Anyone can see the math, the sources, and the limits. If something looks wrong, tell us and we'll fix it.
In one paragraph
We ask 8 questions of participants and 10 of providers. We turn those answers into a score using weights derived from what the government has actually announced and what the underlying policy documents say. We add real source references — not vibes. Where we're guessing because the rules aren't written yet, we say so.
Participant model
The strongest signal is functional capacity (Q4) — that's what the new eligibility test is built around. Everything else is a smaller adjustment.
Worked example
Sarah
35 years old, autism diagnosis, $40k plan, uses core supports plus capacity-building, manages about half her own day-to-day, NSW (postcode 2000), 4 years on the scheme.
Question by question
Q1 · Disability type
Small adjustment for cohorts named in the foundational supports framing — autism (level 1 in particular) and psychosocial disability. Diagnosis alone is a weak signal; functional capacity carries far more weight.
autism +1 · psychosocial +1 · all others 0
Sources: Working Together to Deliver the NDIS , Foundational Supports Framework
Q2 · Plan size
Smaller plans sit closer to the foundational-supports threshold. Larger and more complex plans are less in the immediate firing line. "Not sure" gets a small lean toward the smaller side because uncertain plan size correlates with newer or lighter-touch participation.
< $15k +3 · $15–40k +2 · $40–100k +1 · $100–250k 0 · > $250k −1 · not sure +1
Sources: NDIS Quarterly Report to disability ministers, Q4 2024 , Annual Financial Sustainability Report 2024
Q3 · Support types
Social and community participation has been explicitly capped under the announcement. Capital supports (equipment, modifications) and support coordination are protective signals — these categories are not in the firing line. Plans that are core-only get a small lean toward "watch" because they tend to be lower-intensity.
social-community +2 · capital −1 · support-coordination −1 · core-only +1
Sources: NDIS sustainability and reform , Working Together to Deliver the NDIS
Q4 · Functional capacity
The strongest single signal in the score. Mirrors the new functional-capacity test, which becomes the eligibility gateway from 2028. People who manage most of their day independently are the cohort the announced reforms most directly examine. "Prefer not to say" is treated as neutral — choosing not to answer is not itself a risk signal.
all/nearly all from plan 0 · most 1 · about half 2 · only a little +3 · prefer not say 0
Sources: NDIS sustainability and reform , Working Together to Deliver the NDIS
Q5 · Age
Under-9s transition to state-run Thriving Kids programs. 9–15 sits in a related pathway being designed in parallel.
under-9 +1 · 9–15 +1 · others 0
Sources: Thriving Kids , Foundational Supports Framework
Q6 · Postcode
Used to show local advocacy services and your state's foundational supports program. Not used in the score.
no scoring impact
Q7 · Time on scheme
Longer plan history is harder to reassess down — established evidence, established needs. Newer participants are reviewed earlier in the new cycle and have less documentation to lean on.
< 1 year +1 · > 7 years −1 · others 0
Source: NDIA Annual Report
Q8 · Biggest concern
Used to tailor the language and emphasis of your result. Not used in the score.
no scoring impact
What the score means
Stay informed. Your situation looks relatively stable for now. Keep documentation tidy.
Prepare and document. Some markers in your situation are worth preparing for. Build your evidence base.
Plan actively. Several markers align with what the announced changes are most likely to scrutinise. Connect with an advocate.
Provider model
Same idea, more questions. The score combines revenue dependency, registration status, support category mix, caseload, concern level, service-agreement currency, billing infrastructure, and workforce posture. Three derived calculations follow.
1. Revenue under pressure
Caseload split across the support categories you deliver, multiplied by per-category annual revenue ranges from NDIA Quarterly Reports and the Scheme Actuary, multiplied by an exposure factor based on how the announced reforms target your category mix. Returns a deliberately wide range — the new rules aren't final.
Sources: NDIA Quarterly Reports, Scheme Actuary AFSR, NDS State of the Sector
2. Caseload exposure
Government has projected the scheme will move from ~760k participants today to ~600k by end of decade — about 21%. We distribute that reduction across categories using rates that reflect how the announced reforms target each category, then apply to your reported caseload. Returns a range, not a forecast.
Sources: Butler announcement, NDIS Review final report, NDIA Annual Report, Productivity Commission
3. Compliance readiness (0–100)
Starts at 100. Deductions for being unregistered or unsure (−12 to −20), for stale or partial service agreements (−10 to −22), for spreadsheet billing (−12 to −22), for risky workforce posture (−3 to −10). Higher score = fewer gaps to close before the reforms bed in.
Sources: NDIS Practice Standards, Disability Royal Commission, SCHADS Award
What the score means
Well positioned. Operational profile looks resilient.
Review recommended. Specific areas worth sharpening before the reforms bed in.
Act now. Profile intersects several reform pressure points; concrete action plan needed.
Sources
Every load-bearing number traces to a public source. No unattributed industry figures.
Working Together to Deliver the NDIS — Independent NDIS Review final report
Bruce Bonyhady AM and Lisa Paul AO PSM, December 2023 · retrieved 2026-04-22
The 26-recommendation policy blueprint that the April 2026 announcement implements. Source for cohort projections, foundational supports rationale, registration pathway, and functional capacity framework.
https://www.ndisreview.gov.au/resources/reports/working-together-deliver-ndis →NDIS sustainability and reform — Minister's announcement
Hon. Mark Butler MP, Minister for Health and Disability · retrieved 2026-04-22
Announcement of new functional capacity assessment regime, foundational supports tier, and projected ~160k participant transition by 2028. Implements NDIS Review recommendations.
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-mark-butler-mp →NDIA Annual Report — plan reassessment outcomes
National Disability Insurance Agency · retrieved 2026-03-15
Annual breakdown of plan reassessment outcomes (% increased / unchanged / reduced / withdrawn) by cohort and category. The closest available calibration data for what reassessment under the new framework will look like.
https://www.ndis.gov.au/about-us/publications/annual-report →State of the Disability Sector Report
National Disability Services · retrieved 2026-04-01
Annual provider-side baseline: revenue mix, registration breakdown, workforce stats, margin pressure. Anchors the provider-model revenue and operations weights.
https://www.nds.org.au/about/state-of-the-disability-sector-report →Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability — Final Report
Disability Royal Commission, September 2023 · retrieved 2026-04-22
Independent recommendations on registration, workforce screening, and quality oversight that overlap with the reform agenda. Used as a second-source check on registration and compliance weights.
https://disability.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/final-report →Administrative Review Tribunal — NDIS decisions database
Administrative Review Tribunal (formerly AAT) · retrieved 2026-04-15
Public Tribunal decisions on NDIS appeals. Leading indicator for how functional-capacity reasoning is being applied in current disputes; informs the rights-and-review content.
https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/cases/cth/AATA/ →Productivity Commission — National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) Costs
Productivity Commission · retrieved 2026-02-15
Independent cohort-level cost projections. Used as a cross-check on category exposure weights.
https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/ndis-costs →Disability Services data and reporting
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare · retrieved 2026-03-01
Service utilisation patterns outside NDIS. Cross-check on whether category transition assumptions match sector reality.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports-data/health-welfare-services/disability-services →Federal Budget — NDIS line items
Australian Treasury · retrieved 2026-04-15
Underlying fiscal assumptions behind the announced reform; budgeted savings figures over the forward estimates.
https://budget.gov.au/ →NDIS Pricing Arrangements and Price Limits 2025–26
NDIA · retrieved 2026-04-01
Maximum hourly rates, support item codes, registration group structure.
https://www.ndis.gov.au/providers/pricing-arrangements →NDIS Quarterly Report to disability ministers, Q4 2024
NDIA · retrieved 2026-03-15
Average committed and utilised support budgets by category. Per-participant revenue benchmarks derived from this dataset.
https://www.ndis.gov.au/about-us/publications/quarterly-reports →Annual Financial Sustainability Report 2024
NDIS Scheme Actuary · retrieved 2026-02-01
Cohort-level participant transition projections; 760k → 600k participant base assumption.
https://www.ndis.gov.au/about-us/publications →NDIS Practice Standards
NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission · retrieved 2026-04-01
Registration, audit cycle, and worker screening obligations.
https://www.ndiscommission.gov.au/providers/registered-ndis-providers/provider-obligations-and-requirements/ndis-practice-standards →Foundational Supports Framework — joint federal/state agreement
Department of Social Services · retrieved 2026-04-22
Defines the foundational support tier, state delivery responsibilities, and target cohort criteria.
https://www.dss.gov.au/disability-and-carers/foundational-supports →Social, Community, Home Care and Disability Services Industry Award (SCHADS)
Fair Work Commission · retrieved 2026-03-01
Workforce compliance baseline used in compliance-readiness deductions.
https://www.fwc.gov.au/document-search?q=schads →Australian Postcode to LGA Concordance
Australian Bureau of Statistics · retrieved 2026-01-15
Postcode → LGA mapping used for regional analysis and PSEO.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3 →Thriving Kids — early childhood foundational support programme
Department of Social Services · retrieved 2026-04-22
State-rolled-out foundational supports for under-9s. Drives the Q5 weighting for under-9 and 9–15 cohorts.
https://www.dss.gov.au/disability-and-carers/thriving-kids →What this can't do
- Tell you for certain whether you'll keep your NDIS plan. The final eligibility rules haven't been published.
- Replace advice from a qualified disability advocate, planner, or NDIS sector adviser.
- Predict the exact functional-capacity assessment thresholds — the new tool isn't published yet.
- Calibrate against actual respondent distributions until we have a few hundred captures. The bands today are conservative best-guesses.
If we're wrong about something, tell us
Found a mistake? Have a better source for one of these numbers? Think a weight should be different? hello@callcleo.app — we'll respond within a few days and material corrections get applied.